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Burundi holds a referendum Thursday on constitutional changes that would set the stage for another East African leader to rule for the next 16 years, amid warnings the vote may inflame a three-year political crisis that’s cost hundreds of lives.

A “yes” vote would potentially allow President Pierre Nkurunziza, described by his party as an “eternal visionary,” to remain in office until 2034. Having ruled the tiny landlocked nation since a civil war ended in 2005, he’s the latest leader in the region accused of trying to cement his hold on power.

Burundi is already facing sporadic violence, sparked by Nkurunziza’s bid for his current mandate in 2015. While some groups have been allowed to campaign for a “no” vote, most of the main opposition is either cowed or in exile and the media is muzzled.

“For the last five months the message from the government has been clear: dissenters will be punished,” said Lewis Mudge, a senior researcher at New York-based Human Rights Watch. “This mean that few Burundians will dare to speak out.”

In neighboring Rwanda, President Paul Kagame has ruled since 2000 and won an electoral landslide last year after a referendum altered term limits.

In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni’s supporters in parliament had an upper-age limit for presidential candidates abolished, positioning the 73-year-old to extend his three-decade rule.

In Burundi, the attempt carries additional risks. Nkurunziza’s bid for another term three years ago -- which opponents said violated peace accords -- spurred initial protests that have to this day been followed by a crackdown and sporadic militant attacks. The unrest has forced more than 400,000 from their homes, with a United Nations commission of inquiry accusing authorities of crimes including extrajudicial executions, torture and enforced disappearances. The government dismisses the allegations.

In the latest violence, 26 people were killed in a May 11 attack in the rural northwest that Security Minister Alain Guillaume Bunyoni blamed on an unidentified “terrorist group.” The government in December urged Burundians who’d fled to camps in countries including Tanzania and Rwanda to return.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said Burundi’s opposition groups should take part in any decision to alter the constitution so as to avoid inflaming the crisis, Agence France-Presse reported in February, citing a report sent to the Security Council.

(Bloomberg)

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