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The World Health Organization (WHO) has informed that about 29 million to 44 million Africans may get infected with the Coronavirus disease in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail, according to a study.

WHO Regional Office for Africa in Brazzaville, Congo, made this disclosure in a statement posted on its website. The United Nations (UN) health agency also said the study revealed that 83,000 to 190,000 people in Africa could die of the pandemic in the first year.


"The research which is based on prediction modeling looks at 47 countries in the WHIO Africa Region with a total population of one billion. The new estimates are based on modifying the risk of transmission and disease severity by variables specific to each country in order to adjust for the unique nature of the region.


"The model predicts the observed slower rate of transmission, lower age of people with severe disease and lower mortality rates compared to what is seen in most affected countries in the rest of the world.


"This is largely driven by social and environmental factors slowing transmission, and a younger population that has benefitted from the control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis to reduce possible vulnerabilities," it said.


The lower rate of transmission, however, suggests a more prolonged outbreak over a few years according to the study. "Containment measures, including contact tracing, isolation, improved personal hygiene practices and physical distancing aim to slow the transmission of the virus so it effects happens at a rate manageable by the health system".


The statement quoted Dr Matshidiso, WHO Regional Director for Africa as saying that "While the virus won't spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder transmission hotspots. "COVID-19 can become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region. We need to test, trace, isolate and treat". it further stated.

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